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20121002
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talked and the fact that obama is leading in the polls and the market has to consider the fact that aggressive rises in capital gains tax. that may be a fact. at what point will people sell anticipation of that, do you think? >> i think they are nervously watching and they bought into the qe thing assuming that the gridlock will continue and perhaps from the presidential polls to the presidential election polls. and if there is still not complete control by any one party, the deadlock will continue and the market will be mollified with that. >> you mentioned what you would do if you were at the sidelines at this point in time and "the wall street journal" article was interesting, sort of implying that fund managers were up and will actually sell. the vast majority of mutual fund managers and hedge funds are underperforming their marks. do you think this is going to be a force in the market, as "the wall street journal" wants to make it? it seems to me that the moneying managers outperforming are in such a minority that even if they went to the sidelines -- >> we've seen it. we'
and it will limit the upside for next year. >> is there a point at which you see obama in the polls and you say actually now i believe that we are going to get the tax hikes and the market should fall? there must be a watershed quite soon as we head towards particularly what happens in the house and the senate. >> our focus has been on the senate. we think that's what's going to mostly influence the outcome. i hope there's appetite to see the rates low. i don't see a benefit from raising them. i would call a coin toss on the senate outcome. but wiser minds will see the wisdom of helping the fed in its efforts to stimulate asset prices by not onerously raising taxes on the most important asset class other than homes. >> have you actually calculated a number? you said it would give back some of the rally. but is there a number or a percentage? >> 12-month price target is 1,500. we've written in our research that 1,600 would be a reasonable 2013 end. i need to see an acceleration in global growth. >> contingent on both, not just the tax issue? >> both. somewhere between 1,500 and 1,600. >> david,
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